Incidence rate and predictors of COVID-19 in the two largest cities of Burkina Faso - prospective cohort study in 2021 (ANRS-COV13).

BACKGROUND: Early data on COVID-19 (based primarily on PCR testing) indicated a low burden in Sub-Saharan Africa. To better understand this, this study aimed to estimate the incidence rate and identify predictors of SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in the two largest cities of Burkina Faso. This study is part of the EmulCOVID-19 project (ANRS-COV13). METHODS: Our study utilized the WHO Unity protocol for cohort sero-epidemiological studies of COVID-19 in general population. We conducted random sampling stratified by age group and sex. Individuals aged 10 years and older in the cities of Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso were included and surveyed at 4 time points, each 21 days apart, from March 3 to May 15, 2021. WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Ab ELISA serological tests were used to detect total antibodies (IgM, IgG) in serum. Predictors were investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: We analyzed the data from 1399 participants (1051 in Ouagadougou, 348 in Bobo-Dioulasso) who were SARS-CoV-2 seronegative at baseline and had at least one follow-up visit. The incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion was 14.3 cases [95%CI 13.3-15.4] per 100 person-weeks. The incidence rate was almost three times higher in Ouagadougou than in Bobo-Dioulasso (Incidence rate ratio: IRR = 2.7 [2.2-3.2], p < 0.001). The highest incidence rate was reported among women aged 19-59 years in Ouagadougou (22.8 cases [19.6-26.4] per 100 person-weeks) and the lowest among participants aged 60 years and over in Bobo-Dioulasso, 6.3 cases [4.6-8.6] per 100 person-weeks. Multivariable analysis showed that participants aged 19 years and older were almost twice as likely to seroconvert during the study period compared with those aged 10 to 18 years (Hazard ratio: HR = 1.7 [1.3-2.3], p < 0.001). Those aged 10-18 years exhibited more asymptomatic forms than those aged 19 years and older, among those who achieved seroconversion (72.9% vs. 40.4%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The spread of COVID-19 is more rapid in adults and in large cities. Strategies to control this pandemic in Burkina Faso, must take this into account. Adults living in large cities should be the priority targets for vaccination efforts against COVID-19.

COVID-19 epidemiological, sociological and anthropological investigation: study protocol for a multidisciplinary mixed methods research in Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: The world has high hopes of vaccination against COVID-19 to protect the population, boost economies and return to normal life. Vaccination programmes are being rolled out in high income countries, but the pandemic continues to progress in many low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) despite implementation of strict hygiene measures. We aim to present a comprehensive research protocol that will generate epidemiological, sociological and anthropological data about the COVID-19 epidemic in Burkina Faso, a landlocked country in West Africa with scarce resources. METHODS: We will perform a multidisciplinary research using mixed methods in the two main cities in Burkina Faso (Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso). Data will be collected in the general population and in COVID-19 patients, caregivers and health care professionals in reference care centers: (i) to determine cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Burkinabe population using blood samples collected from randomly selected households according to the WHO-recommended protocol; (ii) develop a score to predict severe complications of COVID-19 in persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 using retrospective and prospective data; (iii) perform semi-structured interviews and direct observation on site, to describe and analyze the healthcare pathways and experiences of patients with COVID-19 attending reference care centers, and to identify the perceptions, acceptability and application of preventive strategies among the population. DISCUSSION: This study will generate comprehensive data that will contribute to improving COVID-19 response strategies in Burkina Faso. The lessons learned from the management of this epidemic may serve as examples to the country authorities to better design preventive strategies in the case of future epidemics or pandemics. The protocol was approved by the Ministry for Health (N° 2020-00952/MS/CAB/INSP/CM) and the Health Research Ethics Committee in Burkina Faso (N° 2020-8-140).